市場報告 – 2019年紐約房價與房市預測

全美權威的地產平臺 Zillow Streeteasy的地產分析師 Grant Long寫了一份關於2019年的報告,我來稍微翻譯與分析他的報告內容。有興趣看原文的我特別留下了原文可以看看哦。


What’s in store next year?
Between a resilient rental market and a bumpy sales market, 2018 was a turbulent year for New York City real estate. As we predicted a year ago, luxury prices have continued to sink, and transportation headaches have played a big role in driving market dynamics. Given that the housing market looks a lot different than it did a year ago, here are six broader trends we see dominating 2019. 

  1. 買家市場持續


The Buyer’s Market Is Here to Stay …
The number of homes listed for sale on StreetEasy hit all-time highs during 2018, yet recorded sales throughout the city fell. More New Yorkers — seeking to accommodate a growing family, to relocate, or simply to cash out their investment — will inevitably look to sell in 2019, adding to a market that’s already saturated. These sellers will need to take much greater measures to move their homes.

While the share of listings on StreetEasy with a price cut hit its highest levels since the wake of the financial crisis, the average amount of those price cuts (on both a percentage and absolute basis) has not budged. Instead of coming to grips with the fact that asking prices are too ambitious, most sellers are making small, incremental adjustments to attract buyers. This strategy didn’t work in 2018, and isn’t likely to in 2019.

  1. 皇后區的崛起

2018年 皇后區的房價成長相當快速,超過了曼哈頓與布魯克林,但實際價格仍然非常實惠,平均價格在65.7萬 (曼哈頓在139萬,布魯克林在95萬)。這個成長速度歸於過去幾年的遲緩,自2008的金融危機後,曼哈頓與布魯克林的房價成長速度明顯超過皇后區。雖然亞馬遜的進軍(已取消)也是個房價成長的因素,但即便沒有亞馬遜的總部決定,皇后區還是會穩定成長,因為許多紐約客紛紛往價格更加實惠且交通方便的的皇后區移動。

… Unless You’re in Queens

The big outlier in the sales market in 2018 was Queens. Prices there have risen at a consistently faster pace than in Brooklyn or Manhattan, yet remain relatively affordable, with an average listing price of $657,000, compared to Manhattan’s $1.39 million and Brooklyn’s $950,000. Much of the enduring price growth in the borough is attributable to making up for lost time: According to the StreetEasy Price Indices, home price appreciation in Queens has significantly lagged growth in Manhattan and Brooklyn since the end of the 2008 financial crisis. The borough’s performance will likely grow with Amazon’s plans to move into Long Island City, but it was likely to continue anyway, given the number of New Yorkers seeking out the relative convenience and affordability of Queens.。

  1. 下城是新的下城

房價與利率使許多人選擇租房,而我們將看到租房市場的熱絡與競爭,過去幾年許多下城週邊的區塊都已經超過曼哈頓本島的房租了。這些地區,包括布魯克林的Dumbo(單波)、布魯克林下城、以及皇后區的長島市以及超過曼哈頓本島的ChelseaNolita、以及East Village東村的房租了。這些出租房源雖然以單價來說還是比較實惠,但在總價已經與曼哈頓許多地區一樣了。


Downtown Is the New Downtown

With interest rates and sales prices high, renting will remain more attractive than buying for many New Yorkers in 2019. We expect competition for rental units in many of the city’s priciest, most central neighborhoods to heat up next summer. Rents in newly chic neighborhoods in outer-boroughs now equal those in many Manhattan neighborhoods: This fall, median rents for 1-bedroom apartments in Dumbo, Downtown Brooklyn, and Long Island City exceeded those in Chelsea, Nolita, and the East Village, respectively. Outer-borough new construction may still offer more per dollar in terms of space and amenities, but with roughly similar median prices in many outer-borough and Manhattan neighborhoods, choosing among them has become more a matter of preference than affordability.

  1. Bedlam 的起伏 (L 地鐵線原先說要關閉,但現在又說不一定關,所以這個不一定準確)


Bedlam on Bedford Avenue

Next year will be a trying one for those living along the L train, with the popular commuting line set to shut down for 18 months beginning April 27. We’ve seen the market for nearby rentals steadily weaken over the course of 2018, as longtime residents decamp for more convenient neighborhoods. Nonetheless, StreetEasy user interest in the neighborhood remains high. Myriad replacements for the L train, from electric Citi Bikes to startup van services, are taking shape, but likely all of these modes of transport — including the subway alternatives planned by the city — will strain under the sheer volume of Brooklynites needing them. Our bet is that many in Williamsburg have underestimated the inconvenience of the shutdown. With North Brooklyn rents hovering around the same level as 2015, we think there is room for them to fall.

  1. 大型項目成熟(我個人認為許多是失敗的)

過去20年,紐約市出現了許多大型專案的規劃與開發,2019年將是個驗證他們是否成功的一年。光是哈德遜廣場就有3-4個大規模項目完工,新大樓的交房,包括57街的新的超高樓與布魯克林的超高樓,曼哈頓下東區的新市集Essex Crossing也將推出。亞馬遜的總部(已取消)也更加帶動了長島市的發展,布魯克林的多個城市綜合體專案也同樣將要完成。但我們已經看到許多大型專案銷售速度與開發速度都嚴重不如預期,其他大型專案還有Waterline Plaza 水線廣場與 BronxPoint。2019年或將是驗證這些開發商是否能夠成功的關鍵一年。

Megaprojects Mature

Enormous building projects have been a hallmark in New York City for the past two decades, and 2019 will be a pivotal year for judging whether they’ve lived up to the hype. Big sections of Hudson Yards are slated to debut in 2019, including 15 Hudson Yards, the Vessel and the Shed. New towers will top out in Downtown Brooklyn, as new phases of Essex Crossing hum along.

While the Amazon HQ2 announcement has buoyed developments in Court Square and Hunters Point, 2019’s weak sales market is going to prove challenging for large developments elsewhere. Among them: the relatively remote Two Bridges area nestled alongside the East River, where the $1.8 billion condo development One Manhattan Square slated to open in early 2019 is the first of three large residential towers planned for the area. Similarly, an additional 11 new buildings are due through 2035 in Brooklyn’s Pacific Park, though condo sales at 550 Vanderbilt — one the of project’s most prominent market-rate buildings — were slower than expected and relied heavily on investors listing them for rent shortly after closing. Next year may be make-or-break for these developments, and could determine the fate of other planned megaprojects around the city, including Waterline Square and Bronx Point.

  1. 科技新創人不買Condo(獨立產權)的帳


Tech Bros Won’t Buy Condos

Both Google and Amazon have made waves by announcing massive hiring plans in the city. Real estate pros rejoiced, as the influx of highly paid professionals will likely push up the cost of housing, much as its has in San Francisco and Seattle. Sellers hoping to flip their luxury condos to these workers, however, are likely to be disappointed.

The $150,000 average annual salary of a new Amazon HQ2 employee is well above the city median, but still far from sufficient to make a multimillion-dollar condo affordable. Moreover, tech workers who do have the means to buy in the city’s pricer new buildings may balk at prices in excess of $1,000 per square foot for a 466-square-foot studio in Queens — well above those of homes adjacent to Amazon’s Seattle headquarters. Investors are buying into many high-priced new developments across NYC, opting to rent out the units while betting on future price appreciation, but those bets have become crowded. While diversifying away from financial services is a welcome move for the New York City economy, it’s unlikely to provide a bailout for those speculating on high-priced luxury condos languishing on the market.



Jerry Wang 王傳詠
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